Grand National 2005

[Simon T]

Anybody supremely confident they have the winner this year? Take The Stand has the best form in the book but Gold Cup form never really seems to work in the Grand National so I'll be looking elsewhere. The one who looks to have the most interesting form if you exclude those in the Gold Cup is Forest Gunner - he's won over 3m4f this season, handles the ground and has won over the National fences previously. Unfortunately he also has a lady driver in the race otherrwise I could see him being the favourite.

I've had each way wagers on Forest Gunner (despite the jockey) and Double Honour (who has been running consistently well in decent staying handicaps this season), might have another look once the 4 day declarations come out.

[nocoat]

Remember Bet Direct are generally most generous with e/w odds.. offering top SIX!! :sorted:

[nocoat]

Simon?, H?, anyone?, can you help.. :imwith: which of the below are NOT likely to run, I am organising a sweepstake in my office, unfortunately am off work on Friday, so will not be able to keep tabs on all this, have to do it on thursday.. don't want to stitch anyone up with non runners :nono:



Behrajan
Gingembre
Shotgun Willy
Fadalko
Ballinclay King
Carbury Cross
Bindaree
Youllneverwalkalone
Katarino
Red Striker
Southern Star
Monty's Pass
Montifault
Polar Champ
Cregg House
Good Shuil
Gunner Welburn
Royal Predica
Supreme Glory
Tremallt
Red Ark Robbo
Killusty
Empereur River
Chives
Iris Bleu
Ad Hoc
Bramblehill Duke
The Bunny Boiler
Blowing Wind
You're Agoodun
Wonder Weasel
Majed
Amberleigh House
Maximize Djeddah
Mantles Prince
Torduff Express
Goguenard Burlu



Have I left any out? :confused:

[Simon T]

There are 40 spots available in the race so the following will run unless withdrawn by connections:

1 F-7P Le Coudray 12 C Roche 11 11-12 155
2 952P First Gold 35 F Doumen 12 11-11 154
3 2334 Royal Auclair 22 P F Nicholls 8 11-10 Christian Williams 153
4 3F79 Monty´s Pass 37 James Joseph Mangan 12 11-6 B J Geraghty 149
5 0782 Fondmort 23 N J Henderson 9 11-6 149
6 PF32 Take The Stand 22 P Bowen 9 11-5 148
7 25P8 Ballycassidy 22 P Bowen 9 11-5 148
8 U42P Ballybough Rasher 25 J Howard Johnson 10 11-4 A Dempsey 147
9 128F Risk Accessor 23 C Roche 10 11-4 147
10 U-56 Bindaree 77 N A Twiston-Davies 11 11-3 C Llewellyn 146
11 4547 Amberleigh House 35 D McCain 13 11-3 G Lee 146
12 4061 Hedgehunter 49 W P Mullins 9 11-1 R Walsh 144
13 -122 Foly Pleasant 22 Miss K Marks 11 11-0 143
14 7P00 Astonville 22 M Scudamore 11 10-13 142
15 -540 Ad Hoc 63 P F Nicholls 11 10-12 J Tizzard 141
16 /51P Heros Collonges 25 P F Nicholls 10 10-11 140
17 0343 Glenelly Gale 30 A L T Moore 11 10-11 140
18 4317 It Takes Time 35 M C Pipe 11 10-11 140
19 12-4 Clan Royal 115 Jonjo O´Neill 10 10-11 A P McCoy 140
20 S341 Nil Desperandum 23 Ms F M Crowley 8 10-11 J Culloty 140
21 3PP4 Lord Noelie 25 Ms Bridget Nicholls 12 10-10 139
22 541P Joly Bey 25 N J Gifford 8 10-10 Mr D H Dunsdon 139
23 3-05 Jakari 25 H D Daly 8 10-10 139
24 P340 Frenchman´s Creek 25 H Morrison 11 10-9 138
25 -020 Iznogoud 23 M C Pipe 9 10-9 138
26 7500 Polar Red 23 M C Pipe 8 10-8 137
27 4432 Double Honour 49 P J Hobbs 7 10-8 P J Brennan 137
28 5-11 Forest Gunner 49 R Ford 11 10-7 Carrie Ford 136
29 P235 Colnel Rayburn 56 Paul Nolan 9 10-7 136
30 812P Just In Debt 28 M Todhunter 9 10-7 A Dobbin 136
31 1141 Spot Thedifference 25 E Bolger 12 10-7 136
32 /5-4 Shamawan 135 Jonjo O´Neill 10 10-6 135
33 3-44 Lord Atterbury 22 M C Pipe 9 10-6 135
34 27P0 Turnium 25 M Scudamore 10 10-6 135
35 3921 Innox 63 F Doumen 9 10-6 135
36 3F0B Europa 23 Ferdy Murphy 9 10-6 135
37 P1P0 Merchants Friend 68 C J Mann 10 10-6 N Fehily 135
38 2796 Arctic Copper 11 Noel Meade 11 10-6 135
39 2P6P Hunters Tweed 23 P Beaumont 9 10-6 R Garritty 135
40 5443 Simply Gifted 23 Jonjo O´Neill 10 10-6 135

The horses below will only get a run if one of the above horses is withdrawn, so if 1 is withdrawn number 41 can run, 4 withdrawn means numbers 41-44 can run etc.

41 1122 Strong Resolve 35 Miss Lucinda V Russell 9 10-6 135
42 4644 L´Aventure 21 P F Nicholls 6 10-5 R P McNally 134
43 3103 Marcus Du Berlais 12 A L T Moore 8 10-5 134
44 -05P Native Emperor 25 Jonjo O´Neill 9 10-5 134
45 54-6 A Piece Of Cake 35 J S Goldie 12 10-5 R McGrath 134
46 2/0P Supreme Glory 102 P G Murphy 12 10-4 L Aspell 133
47 -2P1 Longshanks 68 K C Bailey 8 10-4 J P McNamara 133
48 2368 Smarty 25 M Pitman 12 10-4 133
49 76UP Wild Tempo 21 M Scudamore 10 10-4 133
50 456P Present Bleu 43 M Scudamore 10 10-4 133
51 0F3P Garvivonnian 12 Edward P Mitchell 10 10-4 133
52 3523 Gunner Welburn 7 A M Balding 13 10-3 132
53 9849 Davids Lad 23 A J Martin 11 10-3 132
54 81P7 Historic 51 T R George 9 10-3 132
55 6870 Swansea Bay 25 P Bowen 9 10-3 132
56 0UP9 Artic Jack 21 Mrs S J Smith 9 10-2 131
57 875P Cassia Heights 37 S A Brookshaw 10 10-2 131
58 1-4P Rand 255 Noel Meade 11 10-1 130
59 F5P7 Be My Royal 35 T R George 11 10-1 130
60 3256 Kymandjen 12 Paul Nolan 8 10-0 129
61 F964 Over The First 34 C F Swan 10 10-0 129
62 5221 Juveigneur 24 N J Henderson 8 9-13 128
63 P335 Royal Atalza 57 G A Huffer 8 9-12 P Moloney 127
64 9100 Whereareyounow 25 N A Twiston-Davies 8 9-11 126
65 P-8U World Wide Web 35 Jonjo O´Neill 9 9-11 126
66 -PPP Heart Midoltian 24 M C Pipe 8 9-11 126
67 221P Be My Better Half 42 A L T Moore 10 9-11 126
68 S410 Multeen River 23 Jonjo O´Neill 9 9-11 126
69 -315 You´Re Special 113 P C Haslam 8 9-10 125
70 P1PP Itsonlyme 24 Miss Venetia Williams 12 9-10 125
71 00UP This Is Serious 23 C F Swan 11 9-10 125
72 P6P0 Montreal 24 M C Pipe 8 9-10 125
73 8462 Jack High 12 T M Walsh 10 9-9 124
74 F0F3 Latitude 7 M C Pipe 6 9-9 124
75 54U2 Spring Margot 34 P F Nicholls 9 9-9 124
76 F761 Mini Sensation 127 Jonjo O´Neill 12 9-6 121
77 2679 Bright Approach 32 J G Cann 12 9-5 T J Malone 120
78 2765 Hersov 21 Paul A Roche 9 9-3 118
79 -156 Sherkin Island 119 Jonjo O´Neill 7 9-2 117
80 -P40 Dark Room 35 Jonjo O´Neill 8 9-1 116
81 1540 Majed 25 Mrs L B Normile 9 9-0 115
82 11F2 Boy´s Hurrah 28 J Howard Johnson 9 8-12 113
83 0U54 Farinel 35 Jonjo O´Neill 9 8-11 112
84 P23P Only Once 12 J Howard Johnson 10 8-9 110
85 5212 Toulouse-Lautrec 21 T R George 9 8-8 109

[The H]

yes... 48 hour delarations on thursday @ 1pm. will try and get the latest up by 2pm or so.

ground is running good-soft (good in places) and is subject to change..... lots of horses won't run if it rains, so it's still a lottery at the moment.

[The H]

Have I left any out? :confused:

is that the 2001 Grand National ??? :D

[Old B]

FONDMORT (if he runs, entered in races Thursday, Friday & Saturday) will carry the Aylesbury pounds.

[The H]

Rhyme n Reason (1988) was the last horse to carry 11st and win. (11st-0lb). If the ground is good to soft or softer, it will be very hard to carry that weight and win.

Hedgehunter is the only horse i think can defy the stats, but i won't be backing him either.

So bye bye Take The Stand (11-5) (dodgy jumper & Gold Cup-per).

Of course with up to 6 places up for grabs, any horse can get a place.

[The H]

FONDMORT (if he runs, entered in races Thursday, Friday & Saturday) will carry the Aylesbury pounds.


good: ground, jumps well

bad: too much weight, not won over 2.5 miles before.



I personally don't think a horse can win the National if it hasn't won over 3m+. And 11-6 is a lot of weight to carry.

[The H]

Grand National stats (http://www.aintree.co.uk/cmstemplates/accessible_template.jsp?id=6965)

[nocoat]

Don't think I will be bothered with the Sweepstake this year afterall :imwith:

[The H]

i'm sure the Sun will do one on Friday..... just delegate the responsibility :D

[The Joker]

Small point but I think Strong Resolve (no 41 in Simon T's list) has been guaranteed a place in the field of 40. Could be a good e/w bet...

"...the nine-year-old’s recent second at Kelso has assured him of his place at the starting gate.

Strong Resolve is one of a clutch of National entries who were on a handicap mark of 135 when the weights were first published in February but that runner-up spot led to the British Horseracing Board’s senior handicapper Phil Smith upping that figure by a pound.

Those 16 ounces may not be much but they’re enough to ensure the gelding is Liverpool bound.

"Strong Resolve’s new rating gives him priority over all the others in the field that are on 135," Smith told The Scotsman."

[Simon T]

If you were looking for trend horses you'd be looking for the following :

Age: 8-12
Weight: ideally 10-8 to 11-0
Won over more than 3m
Been running in handicaps that season
Odds between 10/1 & 22/1

Based on that you'd have a shortlist of:

Ad Hoc
Heros Collonges
Nil Desperandum
Clan Royal
Lord Noelie

Double Honour would qualify if he wasn't a 7 year old and you could probably add a few more who are within a few pounds of the ideal weight.

[wibs]

I've got Hedgehunter at 30-1. :bound: :bound:

[The H]

really?

i was thinking of tipping* him if the ground stays on the soft side....

* how much is it worth for me not to

[wibs]

NOOOOOOO I've held this bet since I put it antepost on betfair in January, dont bugger it up for me now.

[Simon C]

The start time has been moved to 4:10 so it doesn't clash with the royal wedding. You know, the one that won't be on tv. :rolleyes:

[The H]

good, that means i won't stay in stripes in the vain hope of the full race in HT

[Simon C]

Many will though. Maybe the Pope has started a chain reaction and all the footy will now be moved to avoid clashing with the National.